{"id":2367,"date":"2020-04-22T17:50:39","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T17:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gronenonline.com\/_gronen1\/?p=2367"},"modified":"2020-04-22T17:50:39","modified_gmt":"2020-04-22T17:50:39","slug":"covid19-and-international-business-a-viewpoint","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gronenonline.com\/_gronen1\/2020\/04\/22\/covid19-and-international-business-a-viewpoint\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid19 and International Business: A Viewpoint"},"content":{"rendered":"

Guest Blogger: Ilan Alon, University of Agder, Norway<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While the world might recover from the Wuhan, China-based 2020 novel coronavirus, it is likely that the virus will leave the world governance system in a different state.\u00a0 Globalization as we knew it is over and a new world order will emerge, with dramatic consequences to our field.<\/span><\/p>\n

Globalization involves the movement of people, information, money, and products, and increases in mobility of these factors of production have allowed for international business to prosper.\u00a0 The post WWII world order held as international institutions, built largely with US leadership, provided a regulatory framework for trade (e.g., WTO, UNCTAD), finance (e.g., IMF), and development (e.g., World Bank). The 21st<\/sup> Century has also witnessed the rise of China as a world power and as a reformer of existing institutions (UN, WHO, WTO) and a creator of new global institutions (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Enter Covid19.\u00a0 International institutions are challenged by legitimacy and the trust in them is eroding.\u00a0 One such key institution is the WHO.\u00a0 The Trump administration has defunded WHO and promised to launch an investigation into their recommendations.\u00a0 Aid to Italy and Spain was shown to come from Russia and China and less from neighboring countries, as countries in the Shengen agreement have closed borders.\u00a0 Mateo Salvini and Giuseppe Conte of Italy have lashed out at the EU for their lack of help with Covid, and warned that the future of the EU is at stake.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the EU, statistics of Covid are shown at the national level and not in the EU level as national governments attempt to battle the virus.\u00a0 EU solidarity will come under strain even further as Hungary\u2019s and Polish governments defy some of its rules, and when costs of Covid19 will need to be divided among its nations.\u00a0 The Westphalian system of the nation state showed its primacy in face of global adversity.\u00a0 In the post-Covid19 world, forces and voices supporting nationalism and protectionism will rise, and those of unrestrained globalization will drown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As for people, the longer the restrictions on the movement of people persist, the bigger the impact it will have on persistent behaviors, both at the personal and at the firm levels.\u00a0 Even after some regions or countries will be open for business (internally), restriction on international movement will persist.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In business, people travel because they need to transfer skills and know-how and when face-to-face and personal interaction was deemed crucial.\u00a0 According to JP Morgan<\/a>, air travel alone is more than 30% of MNCs budgets.\u00a0 Covid19 will allow MNC to test the cost-benefit of travel and entertainment expenses.\u00a0 Technological solutions can now be tested, out of necessity, and some will remain with us forever. Zoom\u2019s stock prices, along with other communication and technology solution companies, skyrocketed in the immediate aftermath of the crisis.\u00a0 The post Covid19 world will see a rise in global virtual teams organized around different technological solutions, including eventually augmented and virtual realities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Information comes in the forms of ideas, data, technology and know-how. The transfer of information is among the most fluid, enabled by technology and advanced communications.\u00a0 Explicit, free information is generally available through internet channels, while tacit knowledge transfer is usually done through intranet channels and movement of people.\u00a0 Covid19 has alerted us to the fact that information is not readily available where governments put restrictions on free media, freedom of speech, internet access.\u00a0 China and Iran are two such places.\u00a0 Lack of proper information about Covid19 has increased suspicion in these countries statistics, whether they are health, policy or economics related.\u00a0 While democratic and open societies communicate available information, authoritarian ones hide, manipulate and control information, creating asymmetry in information flows.\u00a0 Covid19 will likely reduce trust in information coming out of authoritarian regimes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even before Covid19, money has become increasingly paperless. Covid19 will accelerate the use of virtual money.\u00a0 This trend will benefit MNC such as Alibaba, Tencent, Apple, Visa, Master Card.\u00a0 Innovations in digital money, such as Bitcoin and Facebook Libra, will also increase the fluidity of money across borders.\u00a0 Other specialized companies, such as TransferWise, dramatically reduce international transaction costs, by matching buyers and sellers of currencies and sidestepping the international banking settling mechanisms.\u00a0 Countries will find it harder to control the value of their currencies through capital controls. Soft currencies are particularly vulnerable to sharp fluctuations. Covid19 economic hardships will necessitate quantitative easing and fiscal loosening that many countries cannot afford.\u00a0 Sovereign debt crises might follow as a result. The post-Covid19 world will see increasing value fluctuation, virtualization and internationalization of capital.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Money also includes investment by MNCs in fixed, tangible and intangible assets.\u00a0 Following Covid19, due to a recession, investment flows are likely to slow. Unctad<\/a> estimates significant reductions in cross border investment flows as a result of Covid19. With some emerging markets having difficulty serving their dollar denominated loans, currency crises may make net present value (NPV) calculations.\u00a0 Further, MNC will invest where they sell, in China for China, in the USA for the North America, etc. This will lead to greater regionalization of MNC investment flows, as predicted by Rugman and Oh (2008).<\/span><\/p>\n

Products and services will follow similar patterns as investments, as MNC will shorten the supply chains, focus on serving local customers with local manufacturing, and diversify from China-only sourcing.\u00a0 The net beneficiaries are labor and governments in high-income countries, and the biggest loser might be China, which previously occupied \u201cworkshop of the world\u201d title championship.<\/span><\/p>\n

Covid19 exacerbates the already tense relations between Washington and Beijing.\u00a0 As the Group of 2, other countries might have to chose between the two, for example, for aid, policy or 5G network development.\u00a0 The world order will seem increasingly bifurcated.\u00a0 Covid19 will accelerate the divorce between the US and China, decoupling some industries and forcing others to chose a side.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Policy response to Covid19 may be powerful.\u00a0 New industries might be labeled as \u201cstrategic\u201d with greater government regulatory burden. The following industries are likely to be added to the list of sensitive and national security risk (beyond the already sensitive dual technology \u2013 military and civilian \u2013 sectors): food, medicine, energy and oil, technology and telecommunications (especially 5G). For these industries, in particular, supply chains will shorten and nationalize further.\u00a0 Covid19 will force some industries to localize the supply chain, and nationalize their production and sale.<\/span><\/p>\n

MNCs can respond to the changes in the national policies, competitiveness, and new global order by changing their strategies.\u00a0 One, curtail the travel of staff and increase the risk assessment process, to particularly include the risk of infectious diseases.\u00a0 Two, increasingly use GVT in the management of work teams across space and time.\u00a0 Three, produce where you sell or regionalize your supply chain.\u00a0 Four, securitize information flows, protect intellectual property, and cast doubt into the promises, statistics or information coming from authoritarian regimes.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is not often that people have the chance to go through an epic change of historic proportion.\u00a0 Such black swan events can forever change our perceptions, attitudes and behaviors.\u00a0 The \u201cinternational\u201d part of IB will change markedly, with additional challenges of managing the global flows of people, information, money and products. As difficulty rises, what is the future of our profession, and how do we manage from here?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rugman, A., & Oh, C. H. (2008). Friedman’s follies: Insights on the globalization\/regionalization debate.\u00a0Business and politics<\/em>,\u00a010<\/em>(2), 1-14.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Other editorials and viewpoint by Ilan Alon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alon, Ilan (2012), \u201cThe Globalization of Chinese Capital,\u201d East Asia Forum Quarterly<\/u>, 4 (2), 4-6.<\/p>\n

Alon, Ilan (2019), \u201cUS or China \u2013 Hard Choice Awaits Europe,\u201d https:\/\/en.ktu.edu\/news\/ilan-alon-us-or-china-hard-choice-awaits-europe\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Alon, Ilan and Shan Chen (2018), \u201cForging a Canadian Notch in the Belt and Road,\u201d East Asia Forum<\/u>, http:\/\/www.eastasiaforum.org\/2018\/11\/10\/forging-a-canadian-notch-in-the-belt-and-road\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Alon, Ilan and Shaomin Li (2019), \u201cRule Over Law or Rule of Law? China\u2019s IP Theft Dilemma, The American Spectator<\/u>, https:\/\/spectator.org\/rule-over-law-or-rule-of-law-chinas-ip-theft-dilemma\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Alon, Ilan and Shaomin Li (2020), \u201cCovid-19 Response: Democracies v Authoritarians,\u201d The American Spectator<\/u>, https:\/\/spectator.org\/covid-19-response-democracies-v-authoritarians\/<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/monthly.hkej.com\/monthly\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Li, Shaomin, Ilan Alon, and June Wu (2017), “Commentary: Corruption may worsen in democratizing economies: but don’t lose faith in democracy.” Modern China Studies<\/u>, 24 (2), 184-188.<\/p>\n

Li, Shaomin, Ilan Alon, and June Wu (2017), “Don’t lose faith in democracy because of corruption.” Hong Kong Economic Journal Monthly<\/u>, Vol 479, 36-37.<\/p>\n

Li, Shaomin, Ilan Alon, Stefano Elia (2018), \u201cChinese firms are learning to love the rules,\u201d East Asia Forum<\/u>, June 2: http:\/\/www.eastasiaforum.org\/2018\/06\/02\/chinese-firms-are-learning-to-love-the-rules\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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