{"id":2213,"date":"2020-03-26T18:22:10","date_gmt":"2020-03-26T18:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gronenonline.com\/_gronen1\/?p=2213"},"modified":"2020-03-26T18:23:24","modified_gmt":"2020-03-26T18:23:24","slug":"responding-to-slow-onset-disasters-the-boiling-frog-syndrome-jorge-rivera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gronenonline.com\/_gronen1\/2020\/03\/26\/responding-to-slow-onset-disasters-the-boiling-frog-syndrome-jorge-rivera\/","title":{"rendered":"Responding to slow onset disasters: the boiling frog syndrome Jorge Rivera"},"content":{"rendered":"

Guest Blogger: Jorge Rivera, The George Washington University<\/strong><\/span>
\nEmail: jrivera@gwu.edu<\/p>\n

\"\"“And outside, the silent wilderness
\nsurrounding this cleared speck on the earth
\nstruck me as something great and invincible,
\nlike evil or truth, waiting patiently for the
\npassing away of this fantastic [human]
\ninvasion.”
\nJoseph Conrad, Hearth of Darkness, 1899<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hope & cooperation or fear & despair: how does humanity respond to slow onset\u00a0disasters?\u00a0 The Covid-19 pandemic now just in its early global stage makes this question ever\u00a0more important. Why are there delays in responding to this deadly virus? Why is the US\u00a0President already backtracking on barely started responses? He seems to be obsessed with the\u00a0pandemic\u2019s politics and its associated stock market crash; already arguing that despite the\u00a0immense forthcoming loss of life, \u201cthe cure can\u2019t be worse than the problem.\u201d Research that I\u00a0have jointly conducted with Viviane Clement and Peter Tashman on adaptation to climate\u00a0change\u2019s gradual effects can help to develop a better understanding of the reasons for the dismal\u00a0piecemeal response to the coronavirus pandemic.*<\/span><\/p>\n

Our research indicates that this is not a problem unique to the current U.S. President. Top\u00a0politicians and executives\u2019 responses to slow onset natural disasters tend to follow typical\u00a0patterns where the impending acute effect of the disasters are initially unsuspected or worse,\u00a0ignored. For example, during its early stages the COVID-19 pandemic generated apathy and\u00a0was then characterized as a \u201choax\u201d generated by alarmists pursuing a hidden agenda. As the\u00a0severity of a disaster\u2019s effects becomes harder to ignore, the adoption of avoided easy responses\u00a0begins to increase. Unfortunately, if the slow onset disasters\u2019 consequences are very severe and\u00a0societies lack a technological breakthrough solution, then adverse biophysical limits take over\u00a0and overwhelm societies\u2019 ability to respond forcing retreat and in the most extreme cases\u00a0collapse. In other words, societies tend to exhibit lower response levels at both the lower and\u00a0upper range severity of slow onset disasters while displaying greater response levels during the\u00a0medium severity stages of slow onset natural disasters. This typical pattern can be represented by\u00a0an inverted U-shaped relationship between disaster severity and the level of responses\u00a0implemented by societies.<\/span><\/p>\n

We propose that this pattern of response to slow onset natural disasters arises for the following reasons. First, facing an emerging disaster, most top decision makers are oblivious\u00a0to slow onset disasters cues<\/strong> and those that are aware find it very difficult to overcome the\u00a0typical social\/political\/economic forces that favor the status quo. Even if detected, however,\u00a0these slow-onset disaster cues are seen as not posing a strong enough threat to gain enough\u00a0attention and catalyze proactive responses. Additionally, the complexity and ambiguity generated\u00a0by emerging slow onset disasters make it difficult to identify their causes and future trends.\u00a0Besides the lack of perceived vulnerability, the lack of societal response to emerging slow onset\u00a0disasters also arises from decision making biases, such as a myopic focus on short term outcomes\u00a0and illusion of control that spur country leaders to unwarrantedly perceive lower levels of\u00a0disaster adversity as unimportant for their core country priorities.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the other extreme, when very severe disaster adversity conditions are being experienced, top\u00a0decision makers display a heightened vulnerability that enhances their support for adopting\u00a0aggressive responses and bolsters their urgency to act. Also, this higher perceived vulnerability\u00a0weakens political opposition to implementing aggressive responses. Yet, despite this increased\u00a0sense of vulnerability, we argue that societies tend to begin abandoning their willingness to\u00a0respond when facing extreme disaster adversity.<\/strong> This is because governments and other\u00a0organizations tend to rely on traditional response practices similar to those implemented at the\u00a0disasters\u2019 medium severity levels. The effectiveness of these traditional practices becomes\u00a0significantly undermined as very high disaster severity progressively imposes extremer\u00a0biophysical constraints. Instead, more in-depth, longer-term oriented, and innovative response\u00a0efforts, beyond routine responses, are needed to develop advanced resilience technologies and\u00a0capabilities that allow countries to effectively counter more extreme constraints from very severe\u00a0disaster adversity. The challenge is that developing such advanced resilience capabilities and technologies involves risky change processes and breakthrough innovations that are very difficult to quickly develop and implement.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the medium severity stages of slow onset natural disasters, the highest response\u00a0levels are observed because biophysical constraints are not so stiff as to render response\u00a0efforts too costly or ineffective.<\/strong> Concurrently, a country\u2019s top decision makers begin to fully\u00a0accept their societies\u2019 acute vulnerability because it becomes difficult to miss, ignore, deny, or\u00a0misinterpret the increasing threats posed by a fully unfolding slow onset disaster. This higher\u00a0sense of vulnerability increases the assessment of the net economic benefits of enhanced disaster\u00a0response measures. It also leads to the decline of forces initially opposing adequate responses.\u00a0The increased response levels during the medium severity stages a natural disaster may also arise\u00a0from opportunities to imitate and\/or collaborate with other countries that have already adopted\u00a0successful and innovative disaster response approaches.<\/span><\/p>\n

* See articles on my website at: https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/jorgeriveragwu\/home
\n– Tashman, P., and Rivera, J. (2016). Ecological uncertainty, adaptation, and mitigation in the US Ski Resort
\nIndustry. Strategic Management Journal. Vol. 37: 1507\u20131525.
\n– Rivera, J., and Clement, V. (Forthcoming). Business adaptation to climate change: American ski resorts and
\nwarmer temperatures. Business Strategy and The Environment.
\n“And outside, the silent wilderness<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guest Blogger: Jorge Rivera, The George Washington University Email: jrivera@gwu.edu “And outside, the silent wilderness surrounding this cleared speck on the earth struck me as something great and invincible, like …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nResponding to slow onset disasters: the boiling frog syndrome Jorge Rivera | Gronen<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Responding to slow onset disasters: the boiling frog syndrome Jorge Rivera | Gronen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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